Thursday, August 10, 2006

Sports Economics

In today's Page 2 at ESPN, Derek Zumsteg rails against the Chicago Cubs 'ticket resale' operation (a link to the article is in the title). I disagreed so I sent him this letter:

Derek,

I'm not familiar with the intricacies of Chicago or Illinois law, but to the extent that the system IS legal I don't think you're giving the team enough credit.

To the extent that you accept that the idea that something's cash value can only come from someone's willingness to pay for the thing (and I suspect you do), we're talking economics. I know a little bit about that. Sports economics is a very funny thing: How should a team value a player: His popularity or his production on the field? How do we keep the fans happy butget more money out them? Does it make sense to have crappy, but cheap food at stadiums? Etc, etc. You get the idea and have probably heard the questions asked. Ticket scalping is another one of those issues.

These are businesses, after all. Families do depend on the salaries the teams' employees draw and it's not simply a couple of rich old guys swimming in piles of fans' hard-earned money. So the teams want to make money and they're right to do so. If it's just a question of that and these teams ONLY derived earnings from the stadium, then it would make sense to jack up the prices of everything from tickets to the nicer food these stadiums would inevitably serve to get more money from a happy-to-pay wealthier clientele. The teams would charge the max and there would be no place for scalpers.

But my understanding is that most pro (MLB, NBA, NFL) teams don't make most of their money from the stadium. Merchandising, tv revenue, advertising, etc, these are the things that really bring in the cash. This makes it HUGELY important that the teams keep a significant fan base well beyond the size of that clientele of relatively wealthy stadium-goers I imagined a second ago. I would imagine that tickets well beyond the price range of more blue-collar fans would serve to really alienate those fans from the team and so destroy those other sources of earnings I mentioned. That's why I think that teams like price controls (like anti-scalping laws) on tickets: they forgo some immediate income to help keep a broad fanbase.

(There's also probably a fairness issue that some people in government feel is a good idea since these teams are such cultural institutions. I don'treally have a lot to say about that. I don't know how someone could come up with a 'fair' ticket price. Wouldn't it be close to zero so that anyone could come? And is that price fair to the team?)

So as long as ticket prices are lower than people are willing to pay for them, people are going to find ways to scalp them either legally or illegally so that they (the scalpers) can make the money from the tickets that the team didn't. You say so yourself when you talk about the 6$ tickets. This is where these official Cubs scalpers can help. Yes, I said that something like this probably HELPS the fans.

1. Because the team is selling them, there's no serious risk that these are forged or otherwise bum tickets.
2. Because there's no middleman, the team doesn't need to sell the tickets for as much as scalpers do to make additional profit.
3. Because of #2, this probably forces scalpers to lower their prices which either puts the scalpers out of business or at least allows fans to pay less for tickets from non-team affiliated scalpers. Competition is good for fans.
4. Like I mentioned, the team doesn't want to alienate fans. To theextent that prices from "Wrigley Field Premium Tickets" still alienates a lotfans, they'll go even lower which will add to the effect I described in #3.Accountability is good for fans.

You already agree that scalpers are a fact of life so, since economics and logic say that this will make those scalped tickets cheaper for fans, why complain about the program?

By the way, it's not even close to a noble gesture on the part of the Cubs, but I don't think you're right to dismiss it as simply BAD for fans.

- Ben (NY, NY)

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Terrorists and Terrorism

(Note: I'll be using footnotes for this piece because I think flow is interrupted badly otherwise. Also I should acknowledge that the direct inspiration for this piece came from a conversation with RB)


There are a number of things that jump out for an observer of the discourse of our age. For me, two of those things are 1) The debate over the definitions of 'terrorist' and 'terrorism' (as exemplified by the UN) and 2) What I see as the wild mislabeling of entities and actions as 'terrorists' and 'terrorism' respectively. I think it's fairly obvious to the reader that #1 leads to #2 in a very direct way and so is the more pressing question.

I am, in no subtle way, setting this essay up as my attempt to define these two terms but I would make one further division in setting up the issue before I attempt a response: Given that, (broadly speaking) a terrorist is one who engages in terrorism, the ultimate question here is 'what is terrorism'? That's hardly a profound observation, but it's worth stating to give us a framework.

Terrorism

Much of the debate over the definition is fueled by those who want to either defend or condemn entities they consider engaged in terrorism, but there also seems to be a lot of honest mistakes in terminological imprecision. For a philosophy major, the definition of words can be tricky thing to argue for in a persuasive way, but I will try. It seems to me that everyone engaged in this discussion is looking to have the word contain the following concepts:

- An interest in instilling fear in a populace for specific ends. (It is terrorism after all)

- A focus on intentionally targeting non-military elements of a society.

After that, however, it seems to me that people diverge.(#1)

The big questions that arise beyond that common ground are 1) whether traditional, state-sponsored armies can engage in terrorism and 2) whether the label of terrorism depends on the cause of the relevant organization.

Question 2 seems relatively answerable given what we've discussed above: No. Terrorism is used (in every case I can think) as a claim about an entity's tactics. To claim that 'freedom fighting' and 'terrorism' are mutually exclusive makes no sense. 'Freedom fighting' is a fairly subjective term; I wouldn't call communist guerillas 'freedom fighters', but a communist might. On the other hand, a tactic should be a fairly objective term (as should a word descriptive of tactics). To return to those guerillas: I find their cause loathsome but in this example we shall say that they are very scrupulous about only attacking military targets. Therefore I can not say they are engaged in 'terrorism'. Making an argument along the lines of "this organization's actions can not be described as terrorism because they fight for...." is nonsensical.

To answer Question 1 (two paragraphs above), we need to ask another fairly fundamental question: does 'terrorism' refer to a distinct concept? If it does not, then it does not qualify as a tactic but instead serves purely as a way of describing actual tactics. That's a valid thing to say, but then events that we probably wouldn't describe as terrorism become terrorism: Sherman's March Through Georgia, most of the bombing campaigns of World War 2, medieval sieges, etc. These things all involved explicitly targetting civilian populations for the sake of causing purposeful fear, but I suspect most of us would hesitate calling that terrorism (even if some of us feel that these actions are unspeakably cruel or bad).

Why might those events not qualify as terrorism? Firstly, it seems that we build a more purely political desire in to terrorism. Those above events occured with the purpose of destroying an enemy's warmaking ability or otherwise forcing that enemy's military surrender. Terrorism seems to be associated with, as stated, political goals: scaring a population in to voting such a way (ie Madrid) or otherwise forcing a political outcome (especially 'independence' of a group such as the PKK in Turkey) or causing increased unrest in such and such a society (the Bali bombing). In short, causing enough grief and pressure through attacking civilians that the grief causing group's political demands are met. To confuse political capitulation with military surrender is to conflate two very different concepts.

We also, I suspect, would call the above events (WW2 bombing campaigns, etc) events of 'total war'. In instances of total war we seem to have very different standards of behavior for participants to adhere to. The brutality of World War 2 is a perfect example of this. Terrorism, I suspect, would be an example for most people of a state of less-than-total-war and so would not be appropriate.

If we accept the above, then terrorism can not just be a description. Further reinforcing that we do think of it as a tactic is that we have other words that correspond to other specific types of tactics, but nothing besides 'terrorism' for what I'd argue terrorism is. Conflicts between militaries is 'war' or other synonyms; militaries targetting civilian populations that are protected by militaries is 'total war'; militaries targetting civilian populations that they control is 'suppression' or 'oppression'; armed forces (state-affiliated or otherwise) targetting military forces using the tactics of assymetrical warfare (#2) is 'guerilla warfare'. So what would armed forces targetting civilian populations using the tactics of assymetrical warfare be? Presumably this is where the word 'terrorism' fits in. It certainly seems to fit many people's most common conceptions.

If we add in the intentions we ascribe to terrorism (such as the political goals) then we seem to have a fairly good working defintion. Some might argue that such political goals are built in to assymetrical warfare. Others might go further and say that there doesn't seem to be a good reason to engage in assymetrical warfare with civilian populations except for political goals. Certainly this author can't think of an additional reason besides some kind of raw bloodlust.

So we have our definition of our terrorism: "Armed forces targetting civilian populations using the tactics of assymetrical warfare for political ends."

Terrorists

What, then, is a terrorist? Presumably it is an individual who engages in terrorism as defined. However, it doesn't make sense to say that terrorism is the only thing a terrorist does. Surely we wouldn't call a group anything other than terrorists even if they periodically interspersed their targetting of civilians with the killing of soldiers.(#3) In a similar vein, we would call actions that target civilians to be 'terrorist actions', but if the group responsible for such actions spent most of its time fighting enemy soldiers then it makes more sense to call them 'guerillas' as that is most of what they do.

Obviously there will be times where it is unclear whether a group would better be called 'terrorists' or 'guerillas' but there is no particular reason that it can not be both simultaneously. 'Terrorist' and 'guerilla' are only intended to identify the primary activity of the individual and are not mutual exclusive. One can not be a pacifist and a guerilla and the same time, but there's no reason one can't be both a guerilla and a terrorist.

So our definition of a terrorist is: "One who uses the tactics of terrorism as much or more than any other tactic."

Consequences

If one accepts the reasoning offered above, then it becomes very hard to sympathize with the debate in the UN. Organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas or Al-Qaida are terrorists. Period. They may be justified (this author couldn't disagree more) or be terrorists and freedom fighters, but their tactics are terrorism and they are therefore terrorists. They may also be terrorists and guerillas, but these organizations have their bread and butter in the targetting of civilians for political ends. This is exactly the definition for terrorism formulated above. That said, however, the abduction of soldiers that prompted the current fighting in Lebanon was NOT terrorism, it was guerilla warfare.

And Israel? They are mostly using conventional warfighting techniques against (depending on whom you ask) either a) Hezbollah or b) the people of Lebanon. This author believes a) and finds b) an absurd claim but, if one were to believe b) it would still not make Israel engaged in terrorism: it is engaged in 'total war' in such an instance. And in the case of a), this author could see two acceptable answers: either Israel is engaged in a massive counter-terrorism campaign or it is fighting on the conventional side in a guerilla war. Neither constitutes anything like terrorism.

This author believes that Israel is mostly in the right, but it should be stressed that one can feel that Israel is being wholly inappropriate without claiming that Israel is involved in terrorism. This is a matter of terminological precision, NOT exonerating behavior.

Another example (the one that got the author thinking about this some months ago) is that it is not terrorism when American soldiers are attacked in Iraq. Again, it is guerilla warfare. The terrorism that occurs in Iraq (and there is a lot of it) is what's taking so many unfortunate Iraqi lives in the Sunni Triangle. To try to claim that the former is the same as the latter is either demagoguery or simple wrongheadedness. And it's worth mentioning that, like the Israelis, the Americans are not commiting 'acts of terrorism' nor is America 'the world's greatest terrorist'. That fact doesn't exonerate U.S. foreign policy (this author doesn't feel that very necessary) but it does put the lie to one of the more absurd claims made against it.




Footnotes

#1. One might argue that everyone wants to build in a concept of loathsomeness to the word and that is probably true, but I'd like to back away from that as an inherent meaning to the word and allow the actual actions described by the word dictate whether it's loathsome for the individual. It is the difference between the content of a word and it's implications. For example: we do not hate evil things because we hate the word 'evil', but because we hate the things we call evil. As another example 'crept' and 'skulked' can describe the same action: sneaking around. However, while 'skulked' often has a sinister connotation, 'crept' is often much more neutral.

1(cont.) This brings up the question of whether a word's connotations are divorced from its meanings. This is an old debate to which I probably have nothing meaningful to add. Instead I'll try to sidestep it by suggesting that the intention here is purely to describe the content of a noun ('terrorism') or a tactic, to be more specific. In defining a tactic it makes sense to describe the behavior in as empirical a way as possible and allow the individual to make their own value judgment as opposed to building the judgment in to the noun.

#2. The term 'assymetrical warfare' is often misunderstood. It refers to a style of fighting and does not refer simply to differences in strength between armies. In other words, the United States fighting Monaco may be an unfair fight, but it would not be assymterical warfare simply because of differences in capability. Should one side begin using certain tactics (often called 'non-conventional'), then it could accurately be called 'assymetrical warfare'.

#3. Killing soliders, however, would not be terrorism. It would be guerilla warfare.

On Thomas Sowell

As I think I mentioned in a previous post, I finished reading Thomas Sowell's The Quest for Cosmic Justice a couple of weeks ago. I was very impressed by the book and quality of Sowell's thought. However, after running in to an archive of his columns (on Townhall.com, not my favorite site) and reading a selection, I'm convinced he's one of the smartest people alive today. His social and political commentary should be put in the canon with Peirce, Orwell, Mencken and the rest.

Here's a column on minimum wage (apropos recent posts) that I thought cut to the heart of matters.

And here's a column on the Middle East that, while I disagree with a bit of it, serves as a terse rebuttal to some of the thoroughly wrongheaded ways the region is looked at.

Browse through the archive (focussing on his sociological columns) and I am confident that you'll feel challenged if not swayed.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Free Trade Tragedy

I wasn't sitting in on the Doha meetings, so I don't know what went down, but this is SUCH a huge tragedy.

For those who won't click the link, the Doha world trade negotiations have collapsed. Trade and commerce, as has been proven so many times, is absolutely the best (if not the only) way of lifting people out of povery (education being an excellent way to help rise in a commerce-soaked environment). This isn't the end of the world, but it's literally billions of dollars in revenues gone to continued dead-weight loss and millions of desperately poor people who will continue to not enjoy a higher-standard of living.

I am sure the US shares a portion of the blame, but I have a feeling it comes back to the EU and its farm subsidies again. Certainly the CNN article I linked to suggests that. The EU negotiator really only criticized the US for not giving the EU enough credit for the cuts it WAS willing to make in every breakdown I've read.

Farm subsidies really need to go, but they are thoroughly enmeshed in almost every Western political culture and serve as a perfect example of the pernicious effects of socialized economies and welfare systems. I recognize that there are desirable elements to these programs and I suppose the pros and cons can be debated (I don't see it as much of a competition, obviously), but purely in terms of aggregate additional revenue generated for people and benefits accrued to some of the poorest people on earth, these kinds of programs must be rethought at the least.